Category: Dailies
Can Desmond Provide Pop From the Top for the Nats?
In the Nationals’ six years in Washington, production from the top spot in the batting order has been hit and miss. There’ve been the good (Alfonso Soriano in 2006 and brief periods of success from Cristian Guzman, Willie Harris and Nyjer Morgan), the bad (Guzman in 2009) and the downright ugly (Felipe Lopez in 2007 and 2008). With last year’s leadoff man Morgan heading to the land of Bernie Brewer and brats with red sauce, the Nationals will turn to emerging star Ian Desmond to fill the top spot in the order.
The Nats have had only one non-last place finish in their six years, and they’ve had only one truly outstanding season by a leadoff man as well. In 2006, Soriano finished with a .956 OPS and finished with a 148 sOPS (with 100 being the number for an average player, one can see that Soriano’s season in the top spot of the Nats’ lineup was spectacular). The numbers for other main Nats’ leadoff men over the years have somewhat less inspiriing.
2005 Brad Wilkerson 136 gms in leadoff spot .760 OPS 103 sOPS
2007 Felipe Lopez 103 g .652 OPS 72 sOPS
Nook Logan 28 g .638 OPS 68 sOPS
2008 Felipe Lopez 42g .643 OPS 70 sOPS
Cristian Guzman 40g .811 OPS 113 sOPS
Willie Harris 34g .846 OPS 121 sOPS
2009 Cristian Guzman 49g .751 OPS 98 sOPS
Nyjer Morgan 47g .829 OPS 120 sOPS
Willie Harris 37 g .799 OPS 112 sOPS
2010 Nyjer Morgan 101g .629 OPS 77 sOPS
Cristian Guzman 17g .736 OPS 106 sOPS
Desmond brings power potential to the leadoff spot, but his free swinging ways may translate into a less than desireable on-base percentage. How the Nats’ shortstop fares at the top of the order may well dictate how many RBI opportunities, and good pitchers, number two man Jayson Werth and three hole star Ryan Zimmerman see in 2011. For those who believe that a good start may lead to even better things, Desmond’s career success (albeit in a very limited sample size) against Derek Lowe may help things get off on the right foot for him. In 14 career at bats against Lowe, Desmond has two homers, a double, a triple and five RBI.
Can a 20 Year 20 Win Drought End for the Dodgers in 2011?
Flash back to the 1990 season. Tommy Lasorda was the Dodgers’ manager, the team’s rotation included iconic lefthander Fernando Valenzuela and its regular lineup included Hall of Famer Eddie Murray and current Major League managers Mike Scioscia and Kirk Gibson. On October 1st of that season, something happened that hasn’t happened for the Dodgers in the 20 seasons since then. When Murray sent the Dodger Stadium crowd home with a game-ending RBI single to score pinch-runner Jose Offerman, the Dodgers had captured a 2-1 win over San Diego and starter Ramon Martinez had won his 20th game of the season. In the 20 seasons since 1990, no Dodger pitcher has reached the 20 win pinnacle.
Since 1990, there have been 66 instances of pitchers winning 20 games, 29 in the National League and 35 in the American League. The best a Dodger pitcher has done since then came when Kevin Brown (1999) and Chan Ho Park (2000) won 18 games in back to back seasons.
For a franchise that was often defined by its excellence on the mound, the 20 year drought is puzzling. From the team’s first year in Dodger Stadium in 1962 through Martinez’ gem of a season in 1990, Los Angeles had 15 instances of 20 win seasons. Hall of Famers Sandy Koufax (3) and Don Drysdale (2) combined for five 20 plus win seasons from 1962-1966, and 10 other pitchers in Dodger blue reached the 20 win mark from 1969 through 1990 (with lefty Claude Osteen winning 20 in both 1969 and 1972).
Why haven’t the Dodgers been able to produce a 20 win pitcher in a generation? In the 29 20-plus win seasons for National League pitchers since 1991, the pitchers’ teams have averaged 94 wins. The Dodgers have had five 90 plus win seasons since 1991, but the most wins by a pitcher during those seasons came in 1991 when Martinez followed up on his 20 win season in 1990 by winning 17.
While pitching for a good team is certainly a major factor in a pitcher’s opportunity to win 20 games, not all 20 game winners in the National League since 1991 have pitched for playoff-level teams. In 1992, soon to be Hall of Famer Greg Maddux won 20 for a Cubs team that finished with 78 wins. Other instances of top level performances by pitchers taking the hill for mediocre teams included Dontrelle Willis winning 22 for the 83 win Florida Marlins in 2005, Brandon Webb winning 22 for the 82 win Arizona Diamondbacks in 2008 and Adam Wainwright capturing 20 of the St. Louis Cardinals’ 86 wins in 2010.
Of course, the more games a pitcher starts the better his opportunity to win 20 games. The four man rotations of the 1960’s era Dodger squads led to Koufax averaging 40.66 starts in his three 20 plus win seasons and Drysdale starting 83 games combined in seasons where he won 20 or more games. However, there have been 20 win seasons for the Dodgers in years when pitchers started roughly the same number of games as recent vintage Dodgers starters. Tommy John went 20-7 in only 31 starts for the 1977 National League champion Dodgers, Martinez won 20 in only 33 starts for the 1990 team and Osteen’s 20 victories in 1972 came in only 33 starts.
Of the current Dodger pitchers, lefty Clayton Kershaw (who was two and a half years old when Martinez won his 20th game in October 1990) appears to be the player best suited to bring a 20 win pitcher back to Los Angeles. Kershaw won only 13 games in 2010, but he easily could have had a much higher win total. In his nine no-decisions, Kershaw allowed three or fewer runs in seven of the games. The talented lefty also lost games in 2010 by 2-0 (twice), 3-0 and 2-1 scores. Kershaw’s Wins Above Replacement level number of 4.4 in 2010 was well below the WAR numbers posted by many Dodgers’ 20 game winners (Koufax’s 10.8 WAR numbers in both 1963 and 1966 are the highest during the period), but was in the same range as John’s 4.8 figure in 1977 and ahead of Martinez 4.1 in 1990, Al Downing’s 4.0 WAR when he won 20 in 1971 and Don Sutton’s 3.1 WAR in 1976 when he went 20-11.
Will the long wait for the Dodgers’ next 20 game winner end in 2011? The answer to that question, like the query into whether the team can be a playoff contender this year, appears to rest on the talented left arm of the young Texan Kershaw. Perhaps the combination of another dominant (don’t let the 13 win total in 2010 fool you…Kershaw was tremendous last year) year for the lefty and a little better luck will mean that September’s schedule will include a celebration of another Dodger pitcher joining the 20 win club.
Nationals’ Season In Review- May 2010
The positive vibes generated by a strong April for the Nationals continued in May, at least in games played at home, but the month also revealed evidence of trouble brewing as the season’s first third came to a close.
The team’s 13-16 record in the month was respectable, but a 6-12 record on the road was a shadow of things to come as the Nats would struggle mightily away from home for most of the season. Things really took a turn for the worse beginning on May 15th when the team lost a doubleheader to the Rockies in Colorado by 6-2 and 4-3 scores, and followed up that double loss day with three more losses (2-1 at Colorado, and 6-2 and 3-2 at St. Louis) to bring the team’s record to the .500 level from a season best 20-15 record.
The five game losing streak came after one of the highlights of the season, a 14-6 rout of Colorado on a rainy and cold night in Denver. The game featured a two homer, six RBI performance from Ryan Zimmerman and a seven run outburst in the eighth inning that put the game away. Other highlights included a 4-3 10 inning win at home against Baltimore, a win achieved on the fourth walk-off homer of Josh Willingham’s career, and a 7-3 victory over reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum at San Francisco against the Giants.
TEAM LEADERS- Batting
HR- ZImmerman and Willingham led the team with seven homers each, followed by Adam Dunn with six. Zimmerman’s output tied his career high in homers (he hit seven also in August 2010, July 2009, August 2009 and August 2007).
RBI- Willingham 22, Zimmerman 18, Dunn 18
OPS- Willingham 1.037, Dunn 1.011, Zimmerman .898
Hits- Cristian Guzman, 32. Guzman’s 32 hits gave him a .381 batting average in the month.
Pitching
Wins- Tyler Clippard 4, Luis Atilano 3. Atilano’s 3-1 mark on the month looked solid, but a closer look at his numbers showed that he’d been the beneficiary of some good luck. His ERA in May was a bloated 5.63 and his WHIP was a pedestrian 1.44.
Hard-luck pitcher of the month- Sean Burnett. The Nats’ lefty was 0-3 in May despite averaging a strikeout per innings pitched and a 1.25 ERA.
April 2010 In Review
The first month of the 2010 season was a heady time for the Washington Nationals. The Nats finished the month with a 13-10 record, good enough for second place in the competitve National League East. A 56-83 record in games after April consigned the Nats to their seeminging predestined spot in the cellar of the division but for one fun month, things were looking up in Washington.
TOP PERFORMERS IN APRIL
Ryan Zimmerman- Despite being plagued with nagging injuries, Zim posted a 1.193 OPS with four homers and 13 RBI in the month. His double off of Philadelphia’s Nelson Figueroa gave the Nats their first victory of the year in a 6-5 thriller in the final game of the otherwise disappointing opening series against the National League champions.
Josh Willingham- April was “Hammer Time” in DC, as the burly outfielder hit four homers, drove in 13 runs and posted a .897 OPS.
Ivan Rodriguez- There were concerns among some whether the veteran catcher had anything left in the tank as the season began but at the end of the first month of the campaign, his tanked looked full. I-Rod had a team high 26 hits and posted a .973 OPS on the month.
Livan Hernandez- Thought of as a mere innings eater as the season began the wily righthander displayed his 2005 form, winning three of four starts with a sparking 0.87 ERA.
Clip and Save- The bullpen duo of Tyler Clippard (3-0, 0.50 ERA) and Matt Capps (0.68 ERA and 10 saves in as many opportunities) made the back-end of the Nats’ pen one of the league’s finest.
BEST GAMES
4/17/10- Livan Hernandez’ resurrgence was in full display on this afternoon in DC when he registered a complete game 8-0 win against the hard-hitting Milwaukee Brewers. Hernandez allowed only four hits and struck out three. His pitching game score of 80 on this day was the best of the season for Washington.
4/25/10- A 1-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers capped a 6-4 homestand against three 2009 National League playoff teams. Scott Olsen, who went 2-1 in the month, was the hero on this day as he allowed only six hits and fanned eight in seven strong innings of work.
WORST MOMENTS
The ugly 11-1 opening day loss to the Phils’ and Roy Halladay. The Nats struggled against the Phils in April as they would throughout the season, going 2-4 on the month.
Giving up 10 runs in the first inning on April 18th to Miwaukee in an 11-7 loss, and surrendering 10 total in the second and the third two days later in a 10-4 loss to the Rockies.
The Nationals won two of three against the Dodgers at home and on the road at Chicago against the Cubs in back to back series, but they could have had sweeps in both. Washington lost heart-breaking extra-inning affairs in both series by identical 4-3 scores.
Nats Three Bagger- October 4, 2010
First Base- Washington’s 2-1 win in 14 innings yesterday in the final game of the season gave the Nats their third win in 13 extra-inning games in 2010. The team’s .231 winning percentage in extra–inning affairs was the worst mark in the franchise’s time in DC. The previous low was a .353 winning percentage in 17 (6-11) extra-inning affairs in 2005. Starter Livan Hernandez was long gone from the game by the time it was decided, but the veteran righthander collected another quality start in the outing to give him 22 in 33 starts on the season. The next highest quality start total among Nats’ pitchers was 12 by John Lannan. Hernandez registered a 3.4 Wins Over Replacement Level Player (WAR) mark on the year, the highest for a Nats’ starter since 2005 when John Patterson (4.9) and Esteban Loaiza (3.8) posted the top two WAR figures in Nats’ history.
Second Base- Nyjer Morgan finished the season with no home runs in 509 at bats, the most at bats without a homer in the National League. Former Nat Jamey Carroll was next, as he had 348 at bats for the Dodgers without a round-tripper.
Third Base- Michael Morse hit homers on Friday and Saturday against left-handed pitchers for the Mets, giving him eight homers in 88 at-bats against lefthanders on the year. Morse’s home run on Friday came as a leadoff batter. When leading off an inning in 2010, Morse posted a 1.133 OPS with seven home runs. The outfielder’s Runs Created Per 27 Outs (RC/27) figure of 6.33 was fourth on the team in 2010, behind only Ryan Zimmerman (7.05), Josh Willingham (6.73) and Adam Dunn (6.64).
Nats Three Bagger- September 30, 2010
With one note on each of the three games in the recent Phils-Nats series at Nats’ Park, here we go.
First Base- Phils’ starter Roy Halladay pitched a gem on Monday night in the team’s NL East clinching win against the Nats, posting a pitching game score (a stat created by Bill James to quantify a starting pitcher’s effectiveness) of 89. Halladay’s game score was not only the top one against the Nats this year, it was the top game score against Washington since the franchise moved to DC in 2005. The list of top opponents’ starting pitching game scores against the Nats is as follows:
Roy Halladay Phl at Was 9/27/10 89
Josh Beckett Was at FL 4/10/05 87
Jason Marquis Stl at Was 8/27/05 86
Bronson Arroyo Cin at Was 4/26/06 86
Brandon Webb Was at Ariz 8/11/07 86
Jake Peavy SD at Was 8/7/05 85
C.C. Sabathia Was at Milw 8/8/08 85
Bronson Arroyo Was at Cin 8/13/09 85
The second highest pitcher’s game score against the Nats in 2010 was an 82, posted by Florida’s Chris Volstad on May 1st in Miami and by Derek Lowe on September 13 in Atlanta.
Second Base- Adam Dunn’s walk-off homer in the Nats’ 2-1 win on Tuesday was the eighth of the slugger’s career, but only the game winner that was a solo blast. It was also the first, and hopefully not the last, game ending homer Dunn has hit as a National. On July 24, 2005, Dunn hit a solo homer off of Milwaukee’s Julio Santana to win a game for the Reds. Dunn’s other walk-off winners have included two two-run shots (against Brad Lidge of Houston on 8/13/03 and Bob Wickman of Atlanta on 8/23/07), three three-run round trippers (against Chad Cordero of Montreal on 6/5/04, Danny Kolb of Milwaukee on 6/14/06 and Masahide Kobayashi of Cleveland on 5/17/08) and one grand slam (against Bob Wickman of Cleveland on 6/30/06).
Third Base- Philadelphia’s four homer power show in last night’s rout of the Nats put the number of homers surrended by Nats pitchers at home at 76 for the year. The four homers also gave the Phillies 25 against the Nats for the 2010 season. The 76 homers surrendered at home is the second lowest for Washington in its six year history. In the inagurial season of 2005, the Nats’ pitchers allowed only 66 homers at caveronous RFK Stadium. The most homers given up at home in a season is 91 by the 2006 pitching staff.
Nats Three Bagger- September 27, 2010
First Base- Sunday was a good day for the Nats as they closed out a series win against the playoff-contending Atlanta Braves and continued on a successful (5-2 so far) homestand that culminates with three against the NL best Phillies this week. A big part of the Nats’ success on Sunday was the effort of reliever Sean Burnett, who won his first game of the year in his 71st appearance. Burnett has been lights out at Nats’ Park so far this season, posting a 1-0 record with a 1.59 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 34 innings pitched.
Second Base- Adam Dunn needs one home run in the next three games to set a record for the most homers hit at Nationals Park in a season. Dunn’s 19 at home so far this season matches the 19 he hit in 2009. Alfonso Soriano, with 24 homers at RFK Stadium in 2006, has the Nationals’ mark for most round-trippers at home for Washington in the Nats’ six years of existence.
Third Base- The high-flying Phillies are the opponent for Washington tonight and to make things even more difficult, the Nats get to take on the Phils’ (and possibly the National League’s) best pitcher in Roy Halladay. Halladay is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA against Washington this year. Halladay’s opponent is lefty John Lannan who has been hot of late, but has struggled in his career against the Phils. Lannan is 0-7 with a 6.06 ERA v.s. Philadelphia, and has surrendered more home runs (13 in only 52 innings pitched) against them than against any other team (the next closest team is Florida with only six homers). Phils’ players with multiple career homers against Lannan include Jayson Werth with three, and Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard with two each.
Nats Three Bagger- September 26, 2010
First Base- A great deal of the blame for another fifth place finish in the National Legaue East for the Nats should be directed toward the ineffectiveness of the team’s starting pitchers. The ugly numbers speak for themselves; the Nats are 14th in the National League in ERA, 15th in innings pitched by starters, 14th in WHIP and 15th in strikeouts to walks ratio. One Nats’ pitcher who is immune from blame is today’s starter, Livan Hernandez. The big righty has pitched well in 2010, exceeding his career averages in many key categories. Hernandez’ 1.327 WHIP number in 2010 is better than his 1,442 career average and his 2010 ERA of 3.75 is more than half a run better than his career average of 4.40. Of the 30 starts for Nats’ pitchers where starters have gone seven innings or more, Hernandez has 13 of them (although he has gone seven innings or more in only two of his last eight starts). Hernandez (who is 62-59 lifetime as a National) has enjoyed great success against many of the players on today’s opponent, the Atlanta Braves. Shortstop Alex Gonzalez, who drove a stake into the Nats’ heart on Saturday with a big three run homer, is hitting only .122 in 49 at bats against Livo. Other Braves who have struggled aganst Hernandez include Derrek Lee (.190 and 12 strikeouts in 42 at bats), Nate McLouth (.111 average in 18 at bats), Melky Caberera (.188 in 16 at bats) and Erik Hinske (.214 in 28 at bats). Braves who have enjoyed success against Hernandez include Martin Prado (.450 in 20 at bats with three doubles) and Jason Heyward (.333 in nine at bats with a double, a homer and five walks).
Second Base- The Nats enter today’s contest looking for their 14th series win at home on the year. If the Nats get a win today or if they win the upcoming home series against the Phillies, they will tie their team high 14 series wins at home set in 2006. A Nats win today would give them wins in all three home series against Atlanta this year and mark the first time Washington has won three home series against a National League East opponent.
Third Base- The Nats have 18 homers this year against the Braves, the most they’ve hit against any opponent. Adam Dunn has hit six, Ian Desmond has two, Josh Willingham and Willie Harris have two each, and Ivan Rodriguez, Michael Morse, Justin Maxwell and Livan Hernandez have one each.
Nats Three Bagger- September 25, 2010
First Base- Last night’s three home run game for the Nats was the 12th of the season for Washington. In those games, the Nats are 9-3. Since 2009, Washington is 18-8 in games where it has three or more home runs. Last night’s win featured two home runs by Adam Dunn. In the 26 three or more homer games over the past two seasons, Dunn or Ryan Zimmerman have homered in all but two. On September 19th in an 8-7 loss to the Phils, Michael Morse, Danny Espinosa and Willie Harris homered. Four days later in a 7-1 win against Houston, Morse, Espinosa and Roger Bernadina went deep.
Second Base- Zimmerman, who is currently sidelined with a rib injury, has gone 78 at bats without hitting a homer. His last round tripper came on August 30th at Florida against Alex Sanabia.
Third Base- Tyler Clippard’s four strikeouts last night gave him 106 on the season. Clippard trails only Carlos Marmol of Chicago among National League relievers (Marmol has 128).
Nats Three Bagger- September 22, 2010
First Base- The biggest hit in last night’s 8-4 Nats’ win over Houston was Ivan Rodriguez’ two out homer off of Felipe Paulino that tied the score at 3-3 and opened the flood gates for a seven run Nats’ rally. The homer was the fourth of the year for the veteran catcher, and the Nats are 4-0 in those games. The home run on an 0-2 count was the 11th (out of 309 home runs) for Pudge in his career, including his first ever home run on August 30, 1991 for Texas against Kansas City’s Storm Davis.
Second Base- Last night’s winning pitcher, Tyler Clippard, picked up his tenth victory of the season as a result of the Nats’ eighth inning rally. Among pitchers who have only appeared in relief in 2010, Clippard’s 10 wins leads the Major Leagues. Seattle’s Brandon League is the closest reliever in wins to Clippard with nine, and Milwaukee’s John Axford is next with eight victories.
Third Base- Jason Marquis takes the hill for Washington tonight in a season that has basically been one long nightmare for the righthander. One reason for Marquis’ struggles may be a career low 1.0 strikeout to walk ratio, which is worse than his previous low mark of 1.6 in 2003 when he went 0-0 with a 5.53 ERA for Atlanta. The potential good news for Marquis and the Nats is that he rebounded to post the best strikeout to walk ratio of his career in 2004 (1.97) as he went 15-7 with a 3.71 ERA for St. Louis. Like last night’s starter John Lannan, Marquis has struggled against Houston’s Carlos Lee. The burly slugger has posted a 1.228 OPS in 38 career at bats against Marquis with two doubles, four homers and 12 RBI.
From A(lston) to Z(immerman) 